time for a look at the weather.

the big message from the local ballot boxes so far is that the conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble. hi, good evening, it's friday night, and we have a top newsnight panel for you tonight. polling guru professor sirjohn curtice. our own political editor nick watt. emma barr, former conservative special advisor. and stephen bush from the financial times, who is an expert on labour. now four of the five biggest vote swings in by—elections from conservatives to labour have happened in the last year under sir keir starmer —

including blackpool south yesterday. however not one further conservative mp has publicly called for rishi sunak to go, despite his party being, according to the experts, in deep electoral trouble. it was a very good night for labour, but there's an acknowledgement that some voters have deserted the party over its stance on gaza. all that and more to come. first, nick, pollsters say these results are bad for the conservatives. where does it leave rishi sunak? figs conservatives. where does it leave rishi sunak?— rishi sunak? as john said, it is a difficult night _ rishi sunak? as john said, it is a difficult night for _ rishi sunak? as john said, it is a difficult night for the _ rishi sunak? as john said, it is al difficult night for the conservative party. but it might be a night of survivalfor rishi party. but it might be a night of survival for rishi sunak. party. but it might be a night of survivalfor rishi sunak. we know as i reported last night there are a group of conservatives rebels, who were hoping to use the aftermath of these results and parliament coming back to oust rishi sunak. to do they

needed a disaster. what did they get? ben houchen holden on. on. andy street looks like he will hold on in the west midlands. you could feel the west midlands. you could feel the air going out of their campaign after the ben houchen win, i said what was your message to them he said get back in your box. i mean, it's absolutely farcical that people would entertain getting rid of rishi. irrespective of what's going on across the country, of which i don't know the detail, the idea that people in the conservative party think we can change prime minister yet again, whoever that may be, and still think we have any chance of winning the next general election is for the birds. they need to be quiet, they need to get behind the prime minister and they need to deliver something for people that gives them the excuse to vote for us.

potential a message to a conservative mp who called for rishi sunak_ conservative mp who called for rishi sunak to _ conservative mp who called for rishi sunak to go, that is simon clarke a tees_ sunak to go, that is simon clarke a tees valley— sunak to go, that is simon clarke a tees valley mp who is close to ben houchen. are we hearing from the rebels _ houchen. are we hearing from the rebels tonight? so far we are not. i was talking — rebels tonight? so far we are not. i was talking to one grandee and they say these _ was talking to one grandee and they say these results are bad enough that any— say these results are bad enough that any talk of an early general election— that any talk of an early general election is— that any talk of an early general election is out of the window, but they're _ election is out of the window, but they're good enough to protect rishi sunak— they're good enough to protect rishi sunak from a leadership challenge. what are _ sunak from a leadership challenge. what are the parties saying? the labour— what are the parties saying? the labour party says, why don't we look at the _ labour party says, why don't we look at the results they believe will tell us— at the results they believe will tell us about what is going to happen— tell us about what is going to happen in a general election? 26% swing _ happen in a general election? 26% swing from — happen in a general election? 26% swing from the conservatives to labour — swing from the conservatives to labour in — swing from the conservatives to labour in the blackpool south by—election. look at the council elections — by—election. look at the council elections in parliamentary battlegrounds, labour getting back hartlepool. and from labour the tories _ hartlepool. and from labour the tories want to hold on to sune, great, — tories want to hold on to sune, great, we — tories want to hold on to sune, great, we would love to see that happen — great, we would love to see that happen. what are the conservatives saying? _ happen. what are the conservatives saying? tees valley, held on to that and west— saying? tees valley, held on to that and west midlands and they talk of projected national share, which

suggests— projected national share, which suggests 34% for labour, they say labour— suggests 34% for labour, they say labour in — suggests 34% for labour, they say labour in 96 under tony blair was on 43%~ _ labour in 96 under tony blair was on 4396. g ., , , ., ., 4396. john curtis, 'ust to let our audience know_ 4396. john curtis, just to let our audience know the _ 4396. john curtis, just to let our audience know the last - 4396. john curtis, just to let our audience know the last time - 4396. john curtis, just to let our| audience know the last time you 4396. john curtis, just to let our- audience know the last time you were asleep was just before 7am yesterday morning. so we're grateful to have you here. morning. so we're grateful to have ou here. ., �* _, morning. so we're grateful to have you here-_ the i morning. so we're grateful to have i you here._ the prime you here. you're welcome. the prime minister is using _ you here. you're welcome. the prime minister is using the _ you here. you're welcome. the prime minister is using the victory _ you here. you're welcome. the prime minister is using the victory of- you here. you're welcome. the prime minister is using the victory of ben i minister is using the victory of ben houchen in tees valley as a guide to potential success for the tories at the general election. is he wise or unwise to do that? he the general election. is he wise or unwise to do that?— unwise to do that? he is wise politically. — unwise to do that? he is wise politically. but _ unwise to do that? he is wise politically, but probably - unwise to do that? he is wise - politically, but probably otherwise bark being up a wrong tree. polling said the result would be close. when the polls asked people what would you do if there was a general election? support for the conservative was 20 points lower than the support for ben houchen. there is a similar phenomenon in the west midlands, although it is not so big. the truth is because so many of

the metro mayor contests have big personality, for whom people are to willing to vote not simply on the grounds of party are parts of the pieces of evidence that we have had that the elections are probably the least reliable guide to where does the parties stand so farr far as the public. the parties stand so farr far as the ublic. ., ., ., a the parties stand so farr far as the ublic. ., ., ., w ., public. now in london, nick what have ou public. now in london, nick what have you been — public. now in london, nick what have you been hear _ public. now in london, nick what have you been hear something i public. now in london, nick what i have you been hear something there has been excitement _ have you been hear something there has been excitement among i has been excitement among conservatives in outer london that susan _ conservatives in outer london that susan hall— conservatives in outer london that susan hall will out perform the bolls _ susan hall will out perform the polls and — susan hall will out perform the polls and tonight we got the turnout figures _ polls and tonight we got the turnout figures and they showed a higher turn out — figures and they showed a higher turn out in — figures and they showed a higher turn out in outer london than inner lohdoh _ turn out in outer london than inner london. london is a doughnut and the outer— london. london is a doughnut and the outer area _ london. london is a doughnut and the outer area is _ london. london is a doughnut and the outer area is traditional hunting ground — outer area is traditional hunting ground for the conservatives. if the turnout _ ground for the conservatives. if the turnout is _ ground for the conservatives. if the turnout is on the outer, that looks

good _ turnout is on the outer, that looks good for— turnout is on the outer, that looks good for the conservatives. i have to say— good for the conservatives. i have to say the — good for the conservatives. i have to say the two main parties are agreed — to say the two main parties are agreed on _ to say the two main parties are agreed on two factors, one they believe — agreed on two factors, one they believe it— agreed on two factors, one they believe it is closer than the polls would _ believe it is closer than the polls would suggest. but the two parties believe _ would suggest. but the two parties believe that it is unlikely that sadig — believe that it is unlikely that sadiq khan will lose this election. they both — sadiq khan will lose this election. they both think sadiq khan will be re—elected. the they both think sadiq khan will be re-elected. , , ., ., ., re-elected. the result is tomorrow. not a vote — re-elected. the result is tomorrow. not a vote has _ re-elected. the result is tomorrow. not a vote has been _ re-elected. the result is tomorrow. not a vote has been counted. i re-elected. the result is tomorrow. not a vote has been counted. what| not a vote has been counted. what intel are you picking up? not a vote has been counted. what intel are you pickin- not a vote has been counted. what intel are you picking up? one is the liberal democrats, _ intel are you picking up? one is the liberal democrats, many _ liberal democrats, many liberal democrats — liberal democrats, many liberal democrats were _ liberal democrats, many liberal democrats were expecting i liberal democrats, many liberal democrats were expecting theyl liberal democrats, many liberal i democrats were expecting they would hear i'm _ democrats were expecting they would hear i'm vete — democrats were expecting they would hear i'm vete voting _ democrats were expecting they would hear i'm vete voting e _ democrats were expecting they would hear i'm vete voting e for— democrats were expecting they would hear i'm vete voting e for you i democrats were expecting they would hear i'm vete voting e for you in- hear i'm vete voting e for you in the constituency, _ hear i'm vete voting e for you in the constituency, but _ hear i'm vete voting e for you in the constituency, but i - hear i'm vete voting e for you in the constituency, but i would i hear i'm vete voting e for you in the constituency, but i would be voting _ the constituency, but i would be voting for— the constituency, but i would be voting for sadiq _ the constituency, but i would be voting for sadiq khan, _ the constituency, but i would be voting for sadiq khan, because. the constituency, but i would be i voting for sadiq khan, because even susan _ voting for sadiq khan, because even susan hall's — voting for sadiq khan, because even susan hall's supporters _ voting for sadiq khan, because even susan hall's supporters were i voting for sadiq khan, because even susan hall's supporters were saying| susan hall's supporters were saying she wasn't— susan hall's supporters were saying she wasn't offering _ susan hall's supporters were saying she wasn't offering much. _ susan hall's supporters were saying she wasn't offering much. the i susan hall's supporters were saying i she wasn't offering much. the labour party's— she wasn't offering much. the labour party's anxiety— she wasn't offering much. the labour

party's anxiety is _ she wasn't offering much. the labour party's anxiety is they _ she wasn't offering much. the labour party's anxiety is they would i she wasn't offering much. the labour party's anxiety is they would tnti party's anxiety is they would tnt -et party's anxiety is they would tnt get enough — party's anxiety is they would tnt get enough votes _ party's anxiety is they would tnt get enough votes from _ party's anxiety is they would tnt get enough votes from people i party's anxiety is they would tnti get enough votes from people whose vote was _ get enough votes from people whose vote was second _ get enough votes from people whose vote was second preference. i i get enough votes from people whose vote was second preference. i hear. vote was second preference. i hear that from _ vote was second preference. i hear that from the — vote was second preference. i hear that from the liberal— vote was second preference. i hear that from the liberal democrats i vote was second preference. i hear that from the liberal democrats in| that from the liberal democrats in the leafier— that from the liberal democrats in the leafier bits _ that from the liberal democrats in the leafier bits of— that from the liberal democrats in the leafier bits of outer _ that from the liberal democrats in the leafier bits of outer london i the leafier bits of outer london front _ the leafier bits of outer london front people— the leafier bits of outer london from. people in— the leafier bits of outer london from. people in the _ the leafier bits of outer london from. people in the labour- the leafier bits of outer london i from. people in the labour party in the middle — from. people in the labour party in the middle of— from. people in the labour party in the middle of the _ from. people in the labour party in the middle of the doughnut, i from. people in the labour party inl the middle of the doughnut, saying, i the middle of the doughnut, saying, i have _ the middle of the doughnut, saying, i have heard — the middle of the doughnut, saying, i have heard people _ the middle of the doughnut, saying, i have heard people saying - the middle of the doughnut, saying, i have heard people saying he i the middle of the doughnut, saying, i have heard people saying he is i i have heard people saying he is going _ i have heard people saying he is going to — i have heard people saying he is going to win, _ i have heard people saying he is going to win, why— i have heard people saying he is going to win, why should i- i have heard people saying he is i going to win, why should i bother? and people — going to win, why should i bother? and people in _ going to win, why should i bother? and people in outer— going to win, why should i bother? and people in outer london- going to win, why should i bother? and people in outer london in- going to win, why should i bother? and people in outer london in thel and people in outer london in the conservative _ and people in outer london in the conservative party— and people in outer london in the conservative party can't _ and people in outer london in the conservative party can't wait i and people in outer london in the conservative party can't wait telll conservative party can't wait tell you they're — conservative party can't wait tell you they're excited _ conservative party can't wait tell you they're excited to _ conservative party can't wait tell you they're excited to vote i conservative party can't wait tell you they're excited to vote for, i conservative party can't wait tell i you they're excited to vote for, not vote for— you they're excited to vote for, not vote for susan _ you they're excited to vote for, not vote for susan hall, _ you they're excited to vote for, not vote for susan hall, but— you they're excited to vote for, not vote for susan hall, but for- you they're excited to vote for, not vote for susan hall, but for the i vote for susan hall, but for the conservatives _ vote for susan hall, but for the conservatives and _ conservatives and against sadiq khan _ conservatives and against sadiq khan the — conservatives and against sadiq khan. the pattern _ conservatives and against sadiq khan. the pattern is _ conservatives and against sadiq khan. the pattern is the i conservatives and against sadiq khan. the pattern is the labouri khan. the pattern is the labour party— khan. the pattern is the labour party has— khan. the pattern is the labour party has traded _ khan. the pattern is the labour party has traded some - khan. the pattern is the labour party has traded some votes i khan. the pattern is the labour- party has traded some votes among graduates— party has traded some votes among graduates and — party has traded some votes among graduates and liberals _ party has traded some votes among graduates and liberals and - party has traded some votes among graduates and liberals and more - graduates and liberals and more left-wing — graduates and liberals and more left-wing people _ graduates and liberals and more left—wing people and _ graduates and liberals and more . left—wing people and compensated graduates and liberals and more - left—wing people and compensated for that by— left—wing people and compensated for that by get— left—wing people and compensated for that by get gt — left—wing people and compensated for that by get gt more _ left—wing people and compensated for that by get gt more electorally- that by get gt more electorally efficient— that by get gt more electorally efficient voter. _ that by get gt more electorally efficient voter. but _ that by get gt more electorally efficient voter. but in - that by get gt more electorally efficient voter. but in london. that by get gt more electorally. efficient voter. but in london the labour— efficient voter. but in london the labour party— efficient voter. but in london the labour party is _ efficient voter. but in london the labour party is introducing - efficient voter. but in london the labour party is introducing ulezi labour party is introducing ulez that is_ labour party is introducing ulez that is paid _ labour party is introducing ulez that is paid for— labour party is introducing ulez that is paid for by— labour party is introducing ulez that is paid for by suburban - labour party is introducing ulez. that is paid for by suburban voters. the deat— that is paid for by suburban voters. the deal that— that is paid for by suburban voters. the deal that seems _ that is paid for by suburban voters. the deal that seems to _ that is paid for by suburban voters. the deal that seems to be - that is paid for by suburban voters. the deal that seems to be working| that is paid for by suburban voters. l

the deal that seems to be working in a more _ the deal that seems to be working in a more efficient— the deal that seems to be working in a more efficient electoral— a more efficient electoral coalition, _ a more efficient electoral coalition, might - a more efficient electoral coalition, might not - a more efficient electoral coalition, might not work a more efficient electoral. coalition, might not work for a more efficient electoral- coalition, might not work for them in londoh — coalition, might not work for them in london. . ., coalition, might not work for them in london. . . ., , ., , in london. emma, what would you be advisin: in london. emma, what would you be advising the — in london. emma, what would you be advising the conservatives _ in london. emma, what would you be advising the conservatives to - in london. emma, what would you be advising the conservatives to do? - advising the conservatives to do? certainly not change the leader at this stage. i think that it is far too late. the rebels left it too late. we have got to work with what we have got. i don't think that anyone would want the next leader of the conservative to go into it having lost an election, which is by no means a guarantee, but potentially lost an election within a few months of starting. i think they need to go back to their core value and remind voters why they were voting for the conservatives in 2019 when there was a landslide when boris was prime minister. what 2019 when there was a landslide when boris was prime minister.— boris was prime minister. what were the core values? _ boris was prime minister. what were the core values? there _ boris was prime minister. what were the core values? there was - boris was prime minister. what were the core values? there was a - boris was prime minister. what were the core values? there was a lot - boris was prime minister. what were the core values? there was a lot of l the core values? there was a lot of personality — the core values? there was a lot of personality involved _ the core values? there was a lot of personality involved is. _ the core values? there was a lot of personality involved is. a _ the core values? there was a lot of personality involved is. a lot - the core values? there was a lot of personality involved is. a lot of- personality involved is. a lot of voting for boris and voting for brexit. �* ., .,, . , ,.,

voting for boris and voting for brexit. �* ., .,, ., , ,., ., brexit. both those, that person and that issue have _ brexit. both those, that person and that issue have gone. _ brexit. both those, that person and that issue have gone. john - brexit. both those, that person and that issue have gone. john curtice, | that issue have gone. john curtice, in terms of coming weeks and months, is there much the conservatives can do to minimise losses that are being suggested be i the national opinion polls? suggested be i the national opinion olls? , , , polls? the truth is it is very difficult — polls? the truth is it is very difficult. we _ polls? the truth is it is very difficult. we should - polls? the truth is it is very i difficult. we should remember polls? the truth is it is very - difficult. we should remember that no post war government that has presided over a market crisis has survived at the ballot box. what happened after the autumn of 2022 was that for the first time in the wake of that the government decided to change the prime minister and there was the hope that might be able to wipe the slate clean. we have probably learned that wiping the slate clean is difficult, not least because the conservative party has not been willing to distance itself not only from liz truss, but from borisjohnson, who is the other reason why they are where they are. rishi sunak did kind of do that. for the rishi sunak did kind of do that. pr?" the first time. rishi sunak did kind of do that. for the first time. i'm _ rishi sunak did kind of do that. for the first time. i'm just _ rishi sunak did kind of do that. for the first time. i'm just stating - rishi sunak did kind of do that. for

the first time. i'm just stating a - the first time. i'm 'ust stating a fact that it h the first time. i'm 'ust stating a fact that it was — the first time. i'm just stating a fact that it was only _ the first time. i'm just stating a fact that it was only two - the first time. i'm just stating a fact that it was only two weeks | the first time. i'm just stating a - fact that it was only two weeks ago. it is far too late. and he didn't vote for the privileges committee report that said boris johnson had misled the house of report that said borisjohnson had misled the house of commons. such progress that he made disappeared in the wake of that. there are two central things that the tories have to do to improve their prospects. one is get the waiting lists down. that is crucial. the second is indeed to try and hope the economy improves. but this is politically more difficult to persuade the public they should be given the credit for the improvement in the economy. the problem they have and every time we have an argument between the parties about the economy, all the labour party has to say is liz truss. end of argument. 0k. let say is liz truss. end of argument. ok. let me put some of those points to the northern ireland minister, who is steve baker. good evening to you mr baker.

who is steve baker. good evening to you mr baker-— who is steve baker. good evening to you mr baker. good evening. thanks for havin: you mr baker. good evening. thanks for having me _ you mr baker. good evening. thanks for having me on. _ you mr baker. good evening. thanks for having me on. i— you mr baker. good evening. thanks for having me on. i don't _ you mr baker. good evening. thanks for having me on. i don't know - you mr baker. good evening. thanks for having me on. i don't know if - for having me on. i don't know if ou for having me on. i don't know if you heard _ for having me on. i don't know if you heard john _ for having me on. i don't know if you heard john curtice, - for having me on. i don't know if you heard john curtice, waiting l you heard john curtice, waiting lists are higher than when rishi sunak promised to bring them down in january 2023. and when it comes to the economy, all people have to do is, liz truss. it the economy, all people have to do is. liz truss— is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering - is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering and| is, liz truss. it is soeb serring i and of course -- sobering and he is, liz truss. it is soeb serring - and of course -- sobering and he has and of course —— sobering and he has and of course —— sobering and he has a great deal to do as a prime minister. but rushy is an expert on the economy and i look forward to keir starmer raising the economy, because rishi can always knock it out of the park. waiting lists imply real suffering. we did come through covid and both the disease and the lockdown and restrictions had health consequences. i’m lockdown and restrictions had health consequences— consequences. i'm going to pause ou, consequences. i'm going to pause you. because — consequences. i'm going to pause you, because the _ consequences. i'm going to pause you, because the conservatives i consequences. i'm going to pause i you, because the conservatives have beenin you, because the conservatives have been in powerfor ia years you, because the conservatives have been in power for ia years and the waiting lists were going up before covid. . .

waiting lists were going up before covid. , , , ., , covid. yes, but it is also still the case that people _ covid. yes, but it is also still the case that people are _ covid. yes, but it is also still the case that people are presentingl case that people are presenting later with more complex symptoms. that is bad news both in terms of well being and also bad news in terms of health service. we need to do everything necessary to improve health care. but in wickham health care has improved since 2010, at a time when i used to to have to keep a dossier of never events and force the trust into special measures. over all it is not a bad record. i over all it is not a bad record. i wonder if you think the results, which are still coming in, but the results we have seen this far, might reasonably suggest that after ia years of tory government people have had enough of the conservatives? well unfortunately when you look at the turn out, it does look like people have had enough of everyone. it is our duty to try and inspire people with an honest and hopeful platform about improving the country. we need to finish the job,

we left the eu and need to get the country on the trajectory the country on the trajectory the country chose and move on. and we need to recover from covid. country chose and move on. and we need to recoverfrom covid. i think that the conservatives are the best party equipped to do that. i that the conservatives are the best party equipped to do that.- that the conservatives are the best party equipped to do that. i want to ask, are party equipped to do that. i want to ask. are you — party equipped to do that. i want to ask. are you in _ party equipped to do that. i want to ask, are you in denial? _ party equipped to do that. i want to ask, are you in denial? you're i ask, are you in denial? you're asking for anotherfive ask, are you in denial? you're asking for another five years to fix some of the things that you have broken. is that the pitch? trio. some of the things that you have broken. is that the pitch?- broken. is that the pitch? no, i would say _ broken. is that the pitch? no, i would say that _ broken. is that the pitch? no, i would say that what _ broken. is that the pitch? no, i would say that what we - broken. is that the pitch? no, i would say that what we need i broken. is that the pitch? no, i i would say that what we need to broken. is that the pitch? no, i i would say that what we need to do broken. is that the pitch? iirr, i would say that what we need to do is finish the job of getting the country on the new path. if you look at the trade figures, they were surprisingly good and compare toad the forecast that people made. but in the context of today's results, of course it is very disappointing to lose those councillors, they are hard working people and i know how hard working people and i know how hard they work in wickham and they have my respect and admire what issing. they shouldn't —— admiration. and they shouldn't be lost. it is a time to be humble

about what the public have told us, to learn the lessons they have told us to accept that you can't change the leader again. it would look ridiculous. a thing that comes up again and again on the the doorstep. in terms of what the public are saying, you will have looked at blackpool south, that is a massive swing. blackpool south, that is a massive swin~., . ., blackpool south, that is a massive swina. , ., , swing. just i would say gently we calculate the _ swing. just i would say gently we calculate the swings, _ swing. just i would say gently we calculate the swings, but - swing. just i would say gently we calculate the swings, but the i swing. just i would say gently we i calculate the swings, but the lesson from blackpool i took is people stayed at home. the vote was down. i believe the labour vote was down. in believe the labour vote was down. in 2019 you, 16,000 vote serce went for the conservatives —— voters went for the conservatives —— voters went for the conservatives, its was 3,000 yesterday. are you saying the 80% of the voters that were missing will come back at the general election? i'm not saying that, i'm saying they didn't vote. it is missing information in the puzzle. so i think the humbling thing is that

they weren't inspired enough to vote conservative. they weren't inspired enough to vote conservative-— conservative. you're going to be able to change _ conservative. you're going to be able to change that _ conservative. you're going to be able to change that over- conservative. you're going to be able to change that over the i conservative. you're going to be| able to change that over the next five months?— able to change that over the next| five months?_ are five months? that is our task. are ou auoin five months? that is our task. are you going to _ five months? that is our task. are you going to be — five months? that is our task. are you going to be able _ five months? that is our task. are you going to be able to _ five months? that is our task. are you going to be able to do - five months? that is our task. are you going to be able to do it? i five months? that is our task. are | you going to be able to do it? well, i believe you going to be able to do it? well, i believe that _ you going to be able to do it? well, i believe that we _ you going to be able to do it? well, i believe that we have _ you going to be able to do it? well, i believe that we have got - you going to be able to do it? well, i believe that we have got a - you going to be able to do it? -ii i believe that we have got a good chance of doing it. when i knock on doors in wickham, i am not hearing a lot of switching to the labour party. i don't... lot of switching to the labour party. idon't..._ lot of switching to the labour pa . idon't... ~ . ., ., party. i don't. .. what about reform? i don't party. i don't. .. what about reform? i don't think— party. i don't. .. what about reform? i don't think on _ party. i don't. .. what about reform? i don't think on labour— party. i don't. .. what about reform? i don't think on labour people - party. i don't. .. what about reform? i don't think on labour people are i i don't think on labour people are excited about a keir starmer government. that is not something i'm picking up on reform i'm not getting a lot of switching, people who were always going to vote for the brexit party are interested in reform. i wish to approach those people again and try to persuade them to vote for us.— them to vote for us. they nearly beat ou them to vote for us. they nearly beat you in _ them to vote for us. they nearly beat you in blackpool. _ at the moment reform have won two

council seats, versus the green..., who have won 159 to reform's two. the workers party of britain has four. again, great respect to reform photos, it doesn't look like they are going to be installed as the next government. —— reform voters. we have to have an honest and open pitch to persuade people they should put their trust in us for another five years. put their trust in us for another five years— put their trust in us for another five ears. , , , ., ., five years. very briefly, you have a ma'ori five years. very briefly, you have a majority of — five years. very briefly, you have a majority ofjust _ five years. very briefly, you have a majority ofjust over _ five years. very briefly, you have a majority ofjust over 4000, - five years. very briefly, you have a majority ofjust over 4000, are i five years. very briefly, you have a | majority ofjust over 4000, are you majority ofjust over a000, are you preparing to look for anotherjob? preparing to look for another job? i'm preparing to look for anotherjob? i'm not preparing, no, buti preparing to look for anotherjob? i'm not preparing, no, but i would observe that in the boundary changes, i lose my most conservative ward, haslemere, so there were good reasons why people widely expect me to lose. if the voting were to

change and ijust lost haslemere, i would certainly lose. i don't take it personally, that is politics, the boundary changes hit hard. i am very stoic, but equally i go forward with a spring in my step, i got into politics to do the best i could and i will continue to do so.— politics to do the best i could and i will continue to do so. thank you for bein: i will continue to do so. thank you for being with _ i will continue to do so. thank you for being with us, _ i will continue to do so. thank you for being with us, steve _ i will continue to do so. thank you for being with us, steve baker. i i will continue to do so. thank you| for being with us, steve baker. we will talk to steve mccabe of labour in a moment. you were chuckling in that interview. tiara in a moment. you were chuckling in that interview.— that interview. two reasons. ifi was given _ that interview. two reasons. ifi was given it — that interview. two reasons. ifi was given £1 for _ that interview. two reasons. ifi was given £1 for every _ that interview. two reasons. ifi was given £1 for every time i that interview. two reasons. ifi was given £1 for every time a i that interview. two reasons. if i i was given £1 for every time a party that did _ was given £1 for every time a party that did badly in a by—election says the reason — that did badly in a by—election says the reason is because our voters stayed _ the reason is because our voters stayed at — the reason is because our voters stayed at home, i would no longer have _ stayed at home, i would no longer have to _ stayed at home, i would no longer have to stay up all night to cover elections — have to stay up all night to cover elections to own a decent crust! the second _ elections to own a decent crust! the second thing, i would point out to steve _ second thing, i would point out to steve baker that the fall in the

turnout — steve baker that the fall in the turnout in blackpool south was rather — turnout in blackpool south was rather less than the fall in many by—elections in this parliament. so on both— by—elections in this parliament. so on both grounds, it doesn't work. when _ on both grounds, it doesn't work. when a _ on both grounds, it doesn't work. when a party is in trouble, the voters — when a party is in trouble, the voters are _ when a party is in trouble, the voters are more likely not to go to the polls— voters are more likely not to go to the polls because they have less motivation... but that isn't a remedy. _ motivation... but that isn't a remedy. it— motivation... but that isn't a remedy, it is a symptom of a problenr. _ remedy, it is a symptom of a problem, the fact you have lost the confidence — problem, the fact you have lost the confidence of many of those who voted _ confidence of many of those who voted for — confidence of many of those who voted for you. they may be the group most _ voted for you. they may be the group most likely— voted for you. they may be the group most likely return to you, but they still have _ most likely return to you, but they still have to — most likely return to you, but they still have to be won over. i rbrill still have to be won over. i will let ou still have to be won over. i will let you get _ still have to be won over. i will let you get some _ still have to be won over. i will let you get some sleep. i still have to be won over. i will let you get some sleep. very l still have to be won over. i will- let you get some sleep. very kind! in a let you get some sleep. very kind! in a moment. _ let you get some sleep. very kind! in a moment, steve _ let you get some sleep. very kind! in a moment, steve mccabe, i let you get some sleep. very kind! in a moment, steve mccabe, we i let you get some sleep. very kind! l in a moment, steve mccabe, we will hearfrom you, but in a moment, steve mccabe, we will hear from you, but first, joe with how labour have fared. subtlety is not part of the labour strategy. keir starmer celebrated the fact the prime minister is now represented by

a labour mayor informally true blue north yorkshire. party insiders argue there were hundreds of successes and the blackpool by—election result is a better indication they are on a path to power. the tories argue their victory on teesside is significant and the pm turned up there. it distracts from the dire results elsewhere. we don't have the results for the london mayor until tomorrow but we have the turnout area by area. it points to a closer contest than some expected, but senior labour sources say sadiq khan will be re—elected, no question. but there is some concern for the party in areas with a large muslim population. on average, earlier today, the party support was down eight points since last year in wards with more than 10% of people identifying as muslims. we could look specifically at oldham council, where only some seats were up for grabs. labour got seven, down five.

independents did very well. they have 27 seats, the largest party, but they lost the council to no overall control. the party are picking up signs it is notjust muslim voters but the younger left—leaning ones looking at alternatives because of gaza. the lib dems have made progress in their efforts to make the tories extinct on certain councils. and the greens have done very well, including becoming the biggest party on bristol council. more results tomorrow, including whether andy street can remain the west midlands mayor. the conservatives are confident on that. for mayor. the conservatives are confident on that. for labour, let's seak confident on that. for labour, let's s - eak to confident on that. for labour, let's speak to the _ confident on that. for labour, let's speak to the shadow _ confident on that. for labour, let's speak to the shadow defence i confident on that. for labour, let's i speak to the shadow defence minister steve mccabe. you have been a long—standing mp in the birmingham area. i wonder what you are hearing about the west midlands mayor race? it is mixed, to be honest. i don't

think we will be clear until well into tomorrow. in certain parts of the region, the labour candidate richard barker seems to have done very well, but there is some suggestion, as we heard earlier, that in areas with large muslim populations, the labour vote might be down a bit. populations, the labour vote might be down a bit-— be down a bit. right, 0k, your stance on _ be down a bit. right, 0k, your stance on gaza _ be down a bit. right, 0k, your stance on gaza is... _ be down a bit. right, 0k, your stance on gaza is... is - be down a bit. right, 0k, your stance on gaza is... is it i be down a bit. right, 0k, your. stance on gaza is... is it costing you the west midlands mayor race, would you say? trio. you the west midlands mayor race, would you say?— would you say? no, i was simply sa in: would you say? no, i was simply saying that _ would you say? no, i was simply saying that the _ would you say? no, i was simply saying that the picture _ would you say? no, i was simply saying that the picture is - would you say? no, i was simply saying that the picture is mixed. | would you say? no, i was simply l saying that the picture is mixed. in some areas we seem to be doing quite well. a lot of confidence. but there are reports, not concerns, reports, that in some areas with a larger muslim population, support might be down a bit, as you just reported yourself. down a bit, as you 'ust reported ourself. ., down a bit, as you 'ust reported ourself. ,, ., , ., yourself. sure, so what is labour auoin to yourself. sure, so what is labour going to do _

yourself. sure, so what is labour going to do about _ yourself. sure, so what is labour going to do about that _ yourself. sure, so what is labour going to do about that in - yourself. sure, so what is labour going to do about that in the i yourself. sure, so what is labour i going to do about that in the coming weeks and months? i going to do about that in the coming weeks and months?_ weeks and months? i think we simply have to have — weeks and months? i think we simply have to have bigger _ weeks and months? i think we simply have to have bigger and _ weeks and months? i think we simply have to have bigger and better- have to have bigger and better conversations with muslim families around the country. we need to understand their distress about gaza. we need to have a better understanding of what labour's position actually is. we also need to hear more about the other things that the labour party stands for, which are much more in their interests and in their families' interests. ., ., interests. your position finally switched to — interests. your position finally switched to calling _ interests. your position finally switched to calling for - interests. your position finally switched to calling for an i interests. your position finally i switched to calling for an immediate ceasefire in february, providing both israel and hamas agree to it. and several months later, it is still affecting your vote. that must be worrying?— be worrying? look, gaza is an immense _ be worrying? look, gaza is an immense problem _ be worrying? look, gaza is an immense problem for- be worrying? look, gaza is an i immense problem for everyone. but the reality is we do want a ceasefire. we do want aid into gaza. we want a durable ceasefire that leads to peace talks and a two state

solution. and we want the hostages released. as most fair—minded people would support that position. i wonder, asjohn mcdonnell is suggesting, if keir starmer need to apologise for the previous position, his interview on the radio and for his interview on the radio and for his failure to back a ceasefire in the first vote in parliament. do you think he needs to apologise to muslim voters for that? trio. think he needs to apologise to muslim voters for that?- think he needs to apologise to muslim voters for that? no, i don't. the conditions _ muslim voters for that? no, i don't. the conditions for _ muslim voters for that? no, i don't. the conditions for a _ muslim voters for that? no, i don't. the conditions for a ceasefire i the conditions for a ceasefire require — the conditions for a ceasefire require the release of the hostages. ithink— require the release of the hostages. i think most people would recognise that. i think most people would recognise that do _ i think most people would recognise that. , ., ~' i think most people would recognise that. i. ~ , .,, i think most people would recognise that. ~ , ,, ., ., that. do you think people know what keir starmerism _ that. do you think people know what keir starmerism is? _ that. do you think people know what keir starmerism is? i _ that. do you think people know what keir starmerism is? i think - that. do you think people know what keir starmerism is? i think they i keir starmerism is? i think they know it is about _ keir starmerism is? i think they know it is about a _ keir starmerism is? i think they know it is about a changed - keir starmerism is? i think they i know it is about a changed labour party. _ know it is about a changed labour party. a _ know it is about a changed labour party, a moderate labour party, a party— party, a moderate labour party, a party capturing the centre ground of politicsm _ party capturing the centre ground of olitics. .. i, party capturing the centre ground of olitics. .. a, a, party capturing the centre ground of olitics. .. i, i, ,~ politics... how would you define it in lain

politics... how would you define it in plain english — politics. .. how would you define it in plain english for— politics... how would you define it in plain english for voters? - politics... how would you define it in plain english for voters? what l in plain english for voters? what does it mean? it is a labour party familiar with the labour party that seems to do best by people and their families. find seems to do best by people and their families. �* ., , , families. and how will it be better forfamilies— families. and how will it be better for families if _ families. and how will it be better for families if labour _ families. and how will it be better for families if labour do _ families. and how will it be better for families if labour do win - families. and how will it be better for families if labour do win the l for families if labour do win the next _ for families if labour do win the next election?— next election? well, we will genuinely — next election? well, we will genuinely seek _ next election? well, we will genuinely seek to _ next election? well, we will genuinely seek to make - next election? well, we will| genuinely seek to make work next election? well, we will- genuinely seek to make work pay. we will seek to address the issue of homelessness. we will seek to address the problems in our schools, hospitals, we will invest in skills so we can actually build the economy that the country needs. but you are not really going to spend any money. how can you do all that? fit not really going to spend any money. how can you do all that?— how can you do all that? of course we are going _ how can you do all that? of course we are going to — how can you do all that? of course we are going to spend _ how can you do all that? of course we are going to spend money, - how can you do all that? of course we are going to spend money, we | how can you do all that? of course i we are going to spend money, we just won't _ we are going to spend money, we just won't squander it the way the government has been doing. thank you very much_ government has been doing. thank you very much for— government has been doing. thank you very much for talking to our audience _ very much for talking to our audience tonight.— very much for talking to our audience tonight. let's hear some more from — audience tonight. let's hear some more from our — audience tonight. let's hear some

more from our panel. _ audience tonight. let's hear some more from our panel. emma - audience tonight. let's hear some} more from our panel. emma barr, former special adviser to grant shapps. stephen bush from the financial times, shapps. stephen bush from the financialtimes, expert shapps. stephen bush from the financial times, expert in labour, and nick is with us. what do these results tell us, do we think, about the timing of the general election? i don't think there is any chance of it being called earlier than october, november. as has been pointed out, he has done enough to cling on to the leadership and to quiet the rebels, but he hasn't done anywhere near enough to look like he's going to win the next general election. it would be very foolish to call an early general election in my view. to call an early general election in m view. , ., , ., my view. the history of political arties my view. the history of political parties when — my view. the history of political parties when they _ my view. the history of political parties when they look - my view. the history of political parties when they look like - my view. the history of political} parties when they look like they my view. the history of political- parties when they look like they are going _ parties when they look like they are going to _ parties when they look like they are going to lose always ends the same way. gordon brown in 2010, john major— way. gordon brown in 2010, john major in— way. gordon brown in 2010, john major in 1997. john major went a major in1997. john major went a month— major in 1997. john major went a

month earlier than he needed to because — month earlier than he needed to because he thought it was good luck and he _ because he thought it was good luck and he was — because he thought it was good luck and he was right. the government that thinks— and he was right. the government that thinks it's going to lose, it wails— that thinks it's going to lose, it waits until— that thinks it's going to lose, it waits until the last possible moment, which this time would be january— moment, which this time would be january which would be pretty grim, so we _ january which would be pretty grim, so we assume the last moment is somewhere in november or december. some _ somewhere in november or december. some rishi _ somewhere in november or december. some rishi sunak's point of view, he will hope that more than one asylum seeker that went voluntarily with £3000 in his pocket gets on a plane and goes out there. and maybe the bank of england will cut interest rates a little bit towards the autumn. is that what he is banking on? , ,., ., , on? the person i quoted said they believed the _ on? the person i quoted said they believed the election _ on? the person i quoted said they believed the election will - on? the person i quoted said they believed the election will be - on? the person i quoted said they believed the election will be on i believed the election will be on december 12th. believed the election will be on december12th. because believed the election will be on december 12th. because the rishi sunak view was always to leave it as late as possible the two good reasons. one, you get the flights taking off to luanda, and you hope the message is not overwhelmed by lots of people coming over in boats.

and the next big thing, inflation in one direction, downwards. and they are hoping for the interest rate cuts. people will fear that. they did believe the first interest rate cuts would come this month. that is not happening for a very simple reason. inflation in the us is holding it back. the earliest interest rate cut in this country now would be september, leaving it awfully late when you are talking about october, november election. conservative politicians are saying, as we head towards a general election, much more scrutiny on labour, and they don't have a plan, the conservatives say, for all sorts of things. is that going to put more pressure on keir starmer? ihla. of things. is that going to put more pressure on keir starmer? no.1 pressure on keir starmer? no, i think the pressure _ pressure on keir starmer? no, i think the pressure on _ pressure on keir starmer? no, i think the pressure on keir- pressure on keir starmer? no, i think the pressure on keir starmer would _ think the pressure on keir starmer would he _ think the pressure on keir starmer would be what _ think the pressure on keir starmer would be what you _ think the pressure on keir starmer would be what you saw— think the pressure on keir starmer would be what you saw in - think the pressure on keir starmer would be what you saw in that - would be what you saw in that interview _ would be what you saw in that interview if_ would be what you saw in that interview. if you're _ would be what you saw in that interview. if you're not - would be what you saw in that interview. if you're not going. would be what you saw in that. interview. if you're not going to spend _ interview. if you're not going to spend more _ interview. if you're not going to spend more money, _ interview. if you're not going to spend more money, how- interview. if you're not going to spend more money, how are i interview. if you're not going to. spend more money, how are you interview. if you're not going to - spend more money, how are you going to make _ spend more money, how are you going to make more — spend more money, how are you going to make more changes? _

spend more money, how are you going to make more changes? the _ spend more money, how are you going to make more changes? the labour. to make more changes? the labour party— to make more changes? the labour party has— to make more changes? the labour party has decided _ to make more changes? the labour party has decided it _ to make more changes? the labour party has decided it wants - to make more changes? the labour party has decided it wants an - party has decided it wants an ultra—cautious, _ party has decided it wants an ultra—cautious, don't- party has decided it wants an ultra—cautious, don't scare . party has decided it wants an. ultra—cautious, don't scare the horses, — ultra—cautious, don't scare the horses, don't— ultra—cautious, don't scare the horses, don't talk— ultra—cautious, don't scare the horses, don't talk about - ultra—cautious, don't scare the i horses, don't talk about spending moneym — horses, don't talk about spending moneym if— horses, don't talk about spending money... if the _ horses, don't talk about spending money... if the conservatives - horses, don't talk about spending . money... if the conservatives make horses, don't talk about spending - money... if the conservatives make a spending _ money... if the conservatives make a spending pledge. _ money... if the conservatives make a spending pledge. you _ money... if the conservatives make a spending pledge, you say, _ money... if the conservatives make a spending pledge, you say, of- money... if the conservatives make a spending pledge, you say, of course. spending pledge, you say, of course we will— spending pledge, you say, of course we will do _ spending pledge, you say, of course we will do that — spending pledge, you say, of course we will do that as _ spending pledge, you say, of course we will do that as well. _ spending pledge, you say, of course we will do that as well. be _ spending pledge, you say, of course we will do that as well. be as - spending pledge, you say, of course we will do that as well. be as close. we will do that as well. be as close as they— we will do that as well. be as close as they possibly— we will do that as well. be as close as they possibly can. _ we will do that as well. be as close as they possibly can. they - we will do that as well. be as close as they possibly can. they are - as they possibly can. they are reliant — as they possibly can. they are reliant on— as they possibly can. they are reliant on the _ as they possibly can. they are reliant on the changes - as they possibly can. they are reliant on the changes to - as they possibly can. they are reliant on the changes to thel as they possibly can. they are - reliant on the changes to the labour market— reliant on the changes to the labour market and — reliant on the changes to the labour market and planning _ reliant on the changes to the labour market and planning regime - reliant on the changes to the labour market and planning regime will. market and planning regime will unlock— market and planning regime will unlock growth _ market and planning regime will unlock growth and _ market and planning regime will unlock growth and allow- market and planning regime will unlock growth and allow them . market and planning regime will| unlock growth and allow them to spend _ unlock growth and allow them to spend more _ unlock growth and allow them to spend more on— unlock growth and allow them to spend more on public— unlock growth and allow them to spend more on public services. i unlock growth and allow them to| spend more on public services. it unlock growth and allow them to i spend more on public services. it is quite _ spend more on public services. it is quite a _ spend more on public services. it is quite a big — spend more on public services. it is quite a big gamble _ spend more on public services. it is quite a big gamble in _ spend more on public services. it is quite a big gamble in terms - spend more on public services. it is quite a big gamble in terms of- spend more on public services. it isl quite a big gamble in terms of these votes _ quite a big gamble in terms of these votes we _ quite a big gamble in terms of these votes we have — quite a big gamble in terms of these votes we have seen _ quite a big gamble in terms of these votes we have seen them _ quite a big gamble in terms of these votes we have seen them losing - quite a big gamble in terms of these votes we have seen them losing to l votes we have seen them losing to the greens— votes we have seen them losing to the greens and _ votes we have seen them losing to the greens and the _ votes we have seen them losing to the greens and the other- votes we have seen them losing to the greens and the other parties . votes we have seen them losing to| the greens and the other parties to their left — the greens and the other parties to theirleft in— the greens and the other parties to their left. in terms _ the greens and the other parties to their left. in terms of— the greens and the other parties to their left. in terms of the - the greens and the other parties to their left. in terms of the direct - their left. in terms of the direct media _ their left. in terms of the direct media pressure _ their left. in terms of the direct media pressure the _ their left. in terms of the direct . media pressure the conservatives hope _ media pressure the conservatives hope for. — media pressure the conservatives hope for. i— media pressure the conservatives hope for. ithink— media pressure the conservatives hope for, i think we _ media pressure the conservatives hope for, i think we saw- media pressure the conservatives hope for, i think we saw in- media pressure the conservatives hope for, i think we saw in that. hope for, i think we saw in that interview. _ hope for, i think we saw in that interview, it's _ hope for, i think we saw in that interview, it's not _ hope for, i think we saw in that interview, it's not an _ hope for, i think we saw in that interview, it's not an easy - hope for, i think we saw in that - interview, it's not an easy question for them, — interview, it's not an easy question forthem, but— interview, it's not an easy question for them, but they— interview, it's not an easy question for them, but they know _ interview, it's not an easy question for them, but they know what - interview, it's not an easy question for them, but they know what their answer— for them, but they know what their answer is, — for them, but they know what their answer is, and _ for them, but they know what their answer is, and we _ for them, but they know what their answer is, and we have _ for them, but they know what their answer is, and we have to - for them, but they know what their answer is, and we have to get - for them, but they know what their| answer is, and we have to get used to them _ answer is, and we have to get used to them saying. _ answer is, and we have to get used to them saying, don't _ answer is, and we have to get used to them saying, don't worry, - answer is, and we have to get used to them saying, don't worry, we . answer is, and we have to get used i to them saying, don't worry, we will work— to them saying, don't worry, we will work harder — to them saying, don't worry, we will work harder g.— to them saying, don't worry, we will work harder-— work harder. a couple of conservative _ work harder. a couple of conservative mps - work harder. a couple of conservative mps that i l work harder. a couple of. conservative mps that i was work harder. a couple of- conservative mps that i was in a whatsapp conversation with today. one said, iii years into this

government, and frankly, strong language coming up, we have kissed off a lot of people... it feels too late to come up with a narrative before the general election and make it plausible. is that fair? 1 before the general election and make it plausible. is that fair?— it plausible. is that fair? i think it's how a _ it plausible. is that fair? i think it's how a lot _ it plausible. is that fair? i think it's how a lot of _ it plausible. is that fair? i think it's how a lot of people - it plausible. is that fair? i think it's how a lot of people feel, i it's how a lot of people feel, particularly on the grassroots. particularly activists at the moment, coming out, not coming out to vote or campaign. one of the things he needs to do is reach out to actual members, which i haven't seen happen recently. he to actual members, which i haven't seen happen recently.— seen happen recently. he needs to reach out to _ seen happen recently. he needs to reach out to them _ seen happen recently. he needs to reach out to them to _ seen happen recently. he needs to reach out to them to get _ seen happen recently. he needs to reach out to them to get them i seen happen recently. he needs to reach out to them to get them out| seen happen recently. he needs to l reach out to them to get them out to campaign? the moment he called the election and goes for the six—week campaign, yeah. kwasi kwarteng today on lbc saying there is no such thing as a safe tory seat any more. baker sounds like he is preparing to lose. most people in the conservative party. _ most people in the conservative party. up— most people in the conservative party. up to _ most people in the conservative party. up to the _ most people in the conservative party, up to the cabinet, -

most people in the conservativel party, up to the cabinet, believe they are — party, up to the cabinet, believe they are going _ party, up to the cabinet, believe they are going to _ party, up to the cabinet, believe they are going to lose _ they are going to lose this election _ they are going to lose this election. their— they are going to lose this election. their strategy.